Tag: brexit
So what am I supposed to do now?
More Brexit commentary
Brexit fallout
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat last week, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten … the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over – Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was “never”. When Michael Gove went on and on about “informal negotiations” … why? why not the formal ones straight away? … he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
On Brexit and hypocrisy
Brexit, as food porn
We’ve gained the dubious award of dumbest voters
Across the United Kingdom on Friday, Britons mourned their long-cherished right to claim that Americans were significantly dumber than they are.
But, yesterday, British voters have done irreparable damage to the most enjoyable sport this nation has ever known: namely, treating Americans like idiots.
When our countrymen cast their votes yesterday, they didn’t realize they were destroying the most precious leisure activity this nation has ever known. Wankers.
In the face of this startling display of national idiocy, we can still muster some of the resilience for which the British people are known. We can hold out hope that, come November, Americans could become dumber than us once more.
The Brexfactor media circus is done, now the cleanup begins
Before the vote:
Mood: Common sense will prevail, surely.
During the vote:
After the vote:
Mood: You bloody fucking idiots. What have you gone and done now…
Shares plunged and the pound plummeted to a 31-year low as panicked traders reacted to the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect of recession amid months of market turmoil. The FTSE 100 tumbled 530 points, or 8.4%, within the first few minutes of trading. That mirrored sharp losses for the pound overnight as investors sold sterling on the back of growing worries about the UK’s economic outlook.
Expect action from the Bank of England to calm the markets. Having highlighted the risks of a leave vote, it will now be the job of BoE and the Treasury to show that they are in charge of events. That may be difficult in the short term, because while the overnight sell-off was in part the result of traders being caught with their trousers down, it was not the only factor. There were four other reasons for the dramatic reaction.
Firstly, Britain is facing a political crisis. It is hard to see how David Cameron can survive the referendum result. George Osborne threatened to deliver an austerity budget if the electorate refused to listen to his warnings. The chancellor is unlikely to be around for long enough to deliver it.
Secondly, Britain is facing a constitutional crisis. Scotland voted decisively for remain, while England outside of London voted for leave. It will not be long before the Scottish National party is demanding another referendum so that an independent Scotland would be able to stay in the European Union.
Thirdly, Britain’s vote has massive implications for Europe. It will embolden other separatist movements across the continent and could lead to other countries voting to leave. Clearly, there will also be consequences for the eurozone, which dodged a bullet last year when Greece remained within monetary union. Brexit will have far bigger consequences, so watch shares in Germany and France tumble on Friday. The pound will fall much further against the dollar than it will against the wounded euro.
Fourthly, Britain now has to decide what sort of arrangement it wants to have with the EU. Does it want to remain part of the single market even if that means accepting free movement of labour? Or does it want to go for a complete go-it-alone approach, which would give the new government a freer hand on immigration?
The result speaks volumes about the state of modern Britain. For the better off, a vote to remain was the obvious thing to do. For the less well-off, a vote to leave was their chance to protest about badly paid jobs, zero-hour contracts, bullying employers, and a sense that they had been forgotten.
These economic problems are deep-seated and of long-standing. Most of them have little to do with Europe. But the referendum has given millions of unhappy people a chance to protest. This is a country divided by wealth, geography and class.
Update: If things weren’t already bad enough, we now hear that Brexit has been endorsed by Fake-Tan-Howler-Monkey-In-Chief Trump as a yooooge thing:
He said: “I think it’s a great thing that happened, an amazing vote, very historic. We’re very happy.”
Asked why people voted for Brexit, he said: “People are angry. All over the world they’re angry.”
Asked if he took heart from the result for his own campaign, Mr Trump said: “We’re doing very well in the United States and essentially the same thing is happening in the United States. “They are angry over borders, they are angry over people coming into the country and taking over and nobody even noticing. They are angry about many, many things.”
In terms of what people were specifically to specify where people were angry, he said: “The UK, the US, many other places. It will not be the last.”
The billionaire mogul predicted the divisions caused by the referendum would “heal” and said it would bode well for his campaign. “You know I said this would happen. I think it is a great thing. We will see but I think it will be a great thing. Basically, they took their country back,” he said.
Update 2: At least the UK retains some of its sense of humour:
Calm down, Boris
Michael Gove says “we’ve had enough of experts”. I say we’ve had enough of Michael Gove. The Leave side’s campaign of misinformation, bigotry, outrage and propaganda has left a singularly bad taste in my mouth.
All of Britain and the world’s leading economic authorities said that any Brexit vote almost certainly would be bad for jobs and living standards. Terms like “economic suicide” aren’t to be taken lightly. On the leave side, you get arguments along the lines of “if the market drops, I’ll finally be able to buy a house”. Except, what happens when you can’t get a mortgage because the economy tanks, the rates go up, and you lose your job? You go buy that house, girl.
Former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has said that high levels of EU migration mean British workers are “forced to compete” with millions from abroad for employment. Employment growth has been impressive across the board as Britain emerges from the post-2008 recessions – and both UK and EU citizens have benefited. Many of the jobs that have been created in that time are the result of increased migration. A bigger population requires more goods and services, which means more jobs are created to provide them. Migration from the EU helped us out of the economic doldrums.
Concern among voters often focuses on the fear that migrants come to the UK to exploit its welfare system, but HMRC figures show that migrants who arrived in Britain in the last four years EU migrants paid £2.5bn more in income tax and national insurance than they took in tax credits and child benefit.
In a major speech on immigration, Michael Gove warned that more arrivals could make the NHS “unsustainable” by 2030. The NHS itself disagrees. Chief executive of NHS England has pointed out that 130,000 European-born doctors, nurses and care workers are vital to keep our health and care services functioning. It is unclear what their working status would be in the event of Brexit.
Yes, the EU isn’t perfect. But it’s better than cutting your nose off to spite your face. It’s like a petulant child taking all his marbles and walking away from the other kids, who happily keep on playing.
John Oliver’s UK EU Anthem
John Oliver proposes a new EU Anthem, from a purely UK position.